A LOOK AT THE 2012 GOP PRESIDENTIAL RACE
Former U.S. Congressman John LeBoutillier 
Because Mitt Romney is on a pre-2012 presidential campaign book tour – and because Sarah Palin is constantly in the news – and because President Barack Obama is in self-destruct mode - let’s take a look far, far ahead at the present state of the 2012 GOP race for president. After all, 2012 is now wide-open:
Romney is a bit hot right now. He is back in the news, on TV and radio shows. He is a good-looking man and with a business background he can speak to the still-deteriorating economic situation all around us. He has learned from some of his mistakes from the 2008 race, too. He now appears more humble.
However, he also has many of the same problems from the past: he is a political chameleon who can change a position at the drop of a hat. He was an enthusiastic booster – and as governor, a signer - of Massachusetts’ own version of ObamaCare. It is now widely unpopular in the Bay State – and one of the reasons Scott Brown won that January 19 special senate election.
Health care premiums have exploded in Massachusetts since that bill was enacted – and may very well be a precursor of what will happen nationally if ObamaCare passes.
Is Romney the Republican ONE or is he, as someone recently put it, an “elegant snake oil salesman”?
(See answer below.)
Sarah Palin hit a home run as a stand-up comic on Jay Leno last week. She is just plain good on TV. She is shopping an Alaskan reality show with mega-producer Mark Burnett. She has the Fox News gig and earns huge speaking fees. In sum, she is raking in the big bucks.
If she runs for president in 2012 then she has to stop most of this money-making. Or, another way to read it is that she is making this money – people look at her on TV and pay to hear her speak - precisely because she might run for president. So, if she does not run, does much of this money-making capability dry up? Or is she banking a ton of dough now and will worry about running later?
Either way she is a major player for this pre-primary period. If she says she is not running, then it is a new race altogether. But until then she dominates all the calculations, sucks up the political oxygen and complicates the race – and the fundraising – for all other candidates.
Speaking of other candidates there are the usual names: Huckabee, Pawlenty, Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels. They all bring something unique to the table. The question is: can any of them “connect” with voters and light a fire?
In late 2007 and early 2008 Huckabee caught fire, passed Romney – who never caught fire at any time in the entire race by the way – but then that fire petered out. No one else caught fire inside the GOP. So McCain won by default. He was a terrible candidate who ran a horrible race.
Today’s fire is not inside the Republican Party. It is inside the Tea Party anti-establishment movement.
This is a movement that sees the establishment of both parties plus Wall Street, Hollywood and the Big Media as corrupt, dirty and rigged. And they are!
This is what the Tea Party Movement is all about.
And the next ONE – the next Reagan – the next Mr. Conservative – has to feel this anger in his bones. No, he can’t come across as an angry person. But he has to feel this anger and this despair and translate it into all his speeches and interviews. Only then will he “connect” and catch fire with this growing band of swing voters who will elect the next president in 2012.
Mitt Romney does not connect. Nor does he really feel that anger. He may yet win – by default; he may stand out in a desultory field the way McCain did in 2008. But he will never really lead this country. You know why not? Because he doesn’t really believe in anything. He looks good but stands for nothing. And this will be his undoing.
The One we are all waiting for – the next real leader of this nation - has not yet appeared on the national stage.
Let us hope he does by 2012.
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John LeBoutillier is a former U.S. congressman and a nationally recognized political commentator. LeBoutillier has been a prolific writer and he has contributed to many major newspapers and magazines. In 1980, LeBoutillier was elected to represent New York's 6th District becoming the youngest member of the 97th Congress. He also has been a frequent commentator, host and guest of many media programs.
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